Twelve months ago, Rory McIlroy fell to his knees on the 18th green at Augusta National and screamed into the turf. The career Grand Slam was complete. Fourteen years of near-misses, one missed par putt, one playoff, and then — finally — the green jacket on his shoulders.
This week he walks back through those gates as defending champion. And the question every golf fan is asking is simple: can he do it again?
The honest answer is: it’s complicated. The case for Rory is compelling. The case against him is equally real. Here’s both.
Why It Would Be Historic
Start with the history. Only three players in the 90-year history of the Masters have successfully defended the title. Jack Nicklaus in 1965 and 1966. Nick Faldo in 1989 and 1990. Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002 — the second leg of the Tiger Slam.
Three names. Three of the greatest players who ever lived, all at or near the peak of their powers when they did it.
If McIlroy wins this week, he joins that list. The first player in 24 years to go back-to-back at Augusta. The first European ever to do it. That’s the prize.
The Case Against
The concern heading into this week isn’t Rory’s talent. It’s his preparation — or more precisely, the lack of it.
In late February, McIlroy tweaked his back in the gym during his warm-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He withdrew before the third round, describing what had started as “a small twinge” developing into muscle spasms in his lower back. It was only the third time in his career he’d pulled out of a tournament mid-event.
The following week at The Players Championship — where he was the defending champion — he arrived late to TPC Sawgrass having missed all his practice rounds. He was a game-time decision for Thursday. He got through the week, making the cut on the number, but finished tied 46th and described feeling “unbelievably rusty”, particularly on the greens.
After that, he made a decision that surprised some people: he sat out the remaining three weeks before Augusta rather than play his way into form. The Masters would be his first tournament since The Players.
Paul McGinley, the former Ryder Cup captain and Sky Sports analyst, summed up the concern plainly: “He got disrupted in Florida and it really cost him two tournaments. He finished well down the field and his stats were well off the pace. So it is a bit worrying.”
McGinley also raised something less discussed — the obligations that come with being the defending Masters champion. The Champions Dinner on Tuesday night. The ladies’ event the week before. The Drive, Chip and Putt for children the day prior. “There are a lot of obligations, a lot of pressure, a lot of scrutiny,” he said.
The defending champion at Augusta carries weight that most players in the field don’t.
The Case For
Here’s what the other side of the argument looks like.
McIlroy confirmed in the week before Augusta that he was no longer taking painkillers for the back injury. He described it as “not an issue.” He played TGL — the indoor simulator league — in the final weeks before Augusta and showed no visible discomfort. He has been practising at home in Florida and, by his own account, feels ready.
More importantly: he now knows how to win at Augusta. That sounds obvious, but it isn’t. The Masters is a unique test — specific course knowledge, specific shot shapes, specific pressure management. For over a decade, something about Augusta resisted him. Last year he cracked the code. That knowledge doesn’t disappear.
His tee-to-green statistics in 2026 are among the best in the field. He ranks inside the top five on tour in strokes gained total, tee-to-green and off the tee. The power and ball-striking are there. The question, as it was last year and the year before, is the putter — he’s currently ranked outside the top 100 in strokes gained putting on tour. Augusta’s greens will expose that quickly if it continues.
And there’s one more factor, intangible but real. Last year, McIlroy arrived at Augusta carrying 14 years of near-misses, the weight of the Grand Slam question, the accumulated pressure of being the best player in the world who couldn’t win the one tournament everyone expected him to win. That weight is gone. He carries a green jacket now. He plays as a champion, not a contender desperately trying to become one.
Rory himself said it best in the buildup to this week: “This isn’t the end.” He’s not defending out of obligation. He wants more.
What the Market Says
The bookmakers have him at around +1200 — second favourite behind Scottie Scheffler at +500. That’s a fair reflection of both his ability and his uncertainty. Scheffler is the more consistent player right now on paper, the world number one, and a two-time Masters champion with a record at Augusta that is simply hard to argue with.
But +1200 on the defending champion, at a course where experience matters more than almost anywhere else in golf, on a player whose tee-to-green game is elite? There are worse bets.
The Verdict
Can Rory McIlroy defend his Masters title?
Yes — with a caveat. The back needs to hold. The putter needs to find something over 72 holes. And he needs to navigate a week that comes with considerably more noise than a normal tournament appearance, even for someone of his stature.
The history says it’s rare. The field says it’s difficult. The man himself says he’s ready.
Augusta has a way of making you believe the impossible is possible. Rory McIlroy, of all people, should know that better than anyone.
