It happened again. One hole away, one swing short, one more gut punch.
Tommy Fleetwood was leading the 2025 Travelers Championship heading into the 72nd hole. Fans were buzzing. Commentators were ready with their redemption scripts. And then? Keegan Bradley. Ice-cold finish. Fleetwood—second again.
If you’re a golf fan with a soul, you probably felt that one. But here’s the thing: maybe we’re all looking in the wrong place for his big breakthrough. Because history, stats, and vibes all point to one place—
Scotland.
Not just as golf’s spiritual home, but maybe the exact setting where Fleetwood finally flips the script.
Why Scotland Makes Sense for Fleetwood
Some players just fit certain courses like a glove. For Tommy Fleetwood, that glove is soaked in wind, rain, and Scottish history.
Look at his record at the Genesis Scottish Open, especially at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick:
- 2020: Birdied the 72nd hole to force a playoff
- 2022: Tied 4th, grinding through brutal weather
- 2023: Tied 6th, with 12 birdies across the weekend
- 2024: Five birdies in six holes on Saturday showed flashes of brilliance, though he finished T34.
That’s not a hot streak. That’s a pattern.
In his last two starts alone at the Scottish Open, Fleetwood has averaged a fifth-place finish. Analysts and bettors basically pencil him in as a top contender before the first tee shot.
And that’s before you even get to his Open Championship pedigree.
A Quiet Killer at The Open
While Tommy’s still chasing that first major win, he’s come close—especially when The Open is held on UK soil:
- 2019 at Royal Portrush: Solo 2nd
- 2022 at St Andrews: Tied 4th
- 2023: Another top-10
His last six Open starts? An average finish of 15th and an average score of 5-under.
Add it all up and you start to wonder—not if he can win in Scotland, but when.
Why 2025 Might Be Different
It’s not just the venues. It’s the timing.
Fleetwood enters this stretch with undeniable momentum. In 2025 alone:
- He’s racked up more top-10 finishes
- Climbed into the world top 10 (currently ranked 9th)
- Nearly won the Travelers Championship in heartbreaking fashion
Even without a trophy, he’s earned something bigger: belief.
And belief is contagious. Analysts are already circling his name for both the Genesis Scottish Open (July 10–13) and The Open at Portrush (July 17–20). Some are even predicting a double breakthrough—his first PGA Tour win and a major.
Could he really win both in back-to-back weeks?
The Weight of the Wait
Here’s the stat that says it all: 42 top-10s on the PGA Tour. No wins.
That’s the most by any player since 1983 without a victory.
Fleetwood has also finished runner-up six times, including multiple playoff losses, Sunday collapses, and final-round heartbreaks. Each one chips away at your confidence—or adds to your resolve.
Golf commentator Wayne “Radar” Riley put it best:
“I’m a firm believer that something big is going to happen to Fleetwood – and we’re all going to go he deserves it – but when will it happen?”
That’s the question hanging in the air every time he tees it up.
What’s Holding Him Back?
It’s not talent. It’s not grit. It’s not experience.
Some experts think it’s mental. Fleetwood’s final-round stats suggest he tightens up under pressure. Others suggest it’s tactical—maybe he needs a caddie change, a new approach, or even a sports psychologist to help close the deal.
Whatever it is, there’s one constant: Scotland brings out his best.
The Intangibles You Can’t Stat Out
Here’s what sets Scotland apart for Fleetwood:
- Course familiarity: He knows every bounce at The Renaissance Club
- Links golf DNA: He grew up in Southport, on the English coast—Scotland feels like home
- Fan energy: The Scottish crowds have embraced him as one of their own
It’s not just a good fit. It’s poetic. If Fleetwood’s story arc has a climax, it deserves to be written on windswept fairways and soaked scorecards.
If Not Now, Then When?
2025 feels like a tipping point. Fleetwood is playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s a Ryder Cup lock. He’s ranked among the elite. And he’s staring down two weeks in July that could rewrite his legacy.
Will it be at the Genesis Scottish Open?
Will it be at The Open Championship?
Or will the heartbreak stretch on?
No one knows. But one thing is clear: if Scotland is the cradle of golf, Tommy Fleetwood is long overdue for his crowning moment.
And something about this summer feels like fate.
“I’m a firm believer that something big is going to happen to Fleetwood – and we’re all going to go he deserves it – but when will it happen?” — Wayne Riley
